QUANTORA · YIELD CURVE LAB

US Treasury yield curve

The shape of the yield curve is the market's single clearest statement about growth and Fed policy - and its inversions have preceded every US recession of the last half century. Here is the live curve from 1 month to 30 years, how it has shifted over the past two years, and the spreads that matter.

Loading the Treasury curve from FRED…

Yields are US Treasury constant-maturity rates from FRED (DGS series), updated each business day. The 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads are classic recession bellwethers: a negative (inverted) spread has historically led downturns by several quarters, though timing varies and it is not a guarantee. Comparison curves use the closest available observation to one and two years ago. Informational only - not investment advice.