QUANTORA · MACRO SIGNALS

Is a recession coming?

The market's own recession gauges, live and free - the Treasury yield curve, the Sahm rule, net liquidity, and credit stress, read the way strategists actually read them. Powered by the Federal Reserve's FRED data.

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12-month recession probability

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From the Treasury yield curve (10y minus 3-month) via the NY Fed / Estrella-Mishkin probit model. Historically a reading above ~30% has preceded recessions; it has flagged nearly every US recession since the 1960s. Not a forecast of timing.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). This product uses the FRED API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The recession-probability model is the Estrella-Mishkin (1996) probit on the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread. For information and education only - not investment advice.