QUANTORA · INFLATION NOWCAST

Inflation & real rates

Inflation drives everything the Fed does, and real rates - what is left after inflation - drive everything markets do. This board pulls the numbers that matter into one place: what inflation actually is, what the bond market expects it to be, and how restrictive policy really is once you strip inflation out.

Loading inflation and rates data from FRED…

Headline CPI and core PCE year-over-year are computed from the FRED price indices (CPIAUCSL, PCEPILFE). Breakeven inflation (T10YIE) is the 10-year inflation rate implied by the gap between nominal Treasuries and TIPS - the market's expectation. The 10-year real yield is the TIPS yield (DFII10). The real policy rate is the fed funds rate minus core PCE. The Fed targets 2% core PCE. Informational only - not investment advice.