QUANTORA · DISTRIBUTION & TAIL LAB

Return distribution & tails

Markets are not normal - they have fat tails, and the tails are where portfolios die. Quantora plots a stock's daily return distribution against the bell curve it is usually assumed to follow, draws the QQ plot that exposes the tails, and quantifies the real downside with skew, kurtosis, VaR and CVaR.

Skew measures asymmetry (negative = crash-prone left tail); excess kurtosis measures tail fatness beyond a normal distribution (0 = normal, higher = fatter). VaR (value at risk) at 95% is the daily loss exceeded 5% of the time; CVaR (conditional VaR, or expected shortfall) is the average loss on those worst days. The QQ plot compares sorted returns to a normal distribution - an S-shape means fat tails. Jarque-Bera tests normality (statistic above ~6 rejects normal at 95%). Historical, based on daily returns over roughly five years. Educational only - not investment advice.